Emissions and CO2 Concentration—An Evidence Based Approach

The relation between CO2 emissions and atmospheric concentration has traditionally been treated with more or less complex models several boxes. Our approach is motivated by the question of how much must necessarily be absorbed sinks. This determined accepted measurements global carbon budget. Observations lead to model assumption that sinks, similar oceans biosphere, are linearly dependent on a decadal scale. In particular, this implies falsifiable hypothesis oceanic biological buffers have not significantly changed in past 70 years saturated foreseeable future. A statistical two parameters built from budget testable assumptions. explains emission historical data very well. gives estimates natural emissions, pre-industrial equilibrium levels, half-life time an pulse, future level given scenario. It validated ex-post forecast last 20 years. important result that, stated polices scenario International Energy Agency (IEA), concentrations will rise above 475 ppm. compared module Bern model, mapping their impulse response functions (IRFs) single variant absorption parameter.